EDUC 8848 Final Project

Emerging Technologies
Examining McLuhan's Tetrad and Thornburg's Six Forces on a school's use of an emerging technology that was obsoleted by another emerging technology, which may be on the way out . . .

For the Resources and Supporting Handouts for this project: Click Here

EDUC 8848 Module 6

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Closing the Global Divide
The question is: What can you do to help make emerging technologies valuable to others, while maintaining gender, cultural, and socioeconomic sensitivity?

Someone, somewhere along this scholarly journey once said that sometimes the best way to argue your point is to argue the counterpoint’s perspective first. I have decided to take this approach and boldly go where few have gone (slight distortion of Star Trek reference).

Soloway, Thornburg, and many others have proposed ideas and strategies to help close the digital divide not only within the U.S. but also globally. My scholarly colleagues, John and Lisa have made some excellent remarks and have posted some great resource links on the bottom of their blog pages which address closing this digital divide.

But for me, the most interesting statement came from Thornburg (Laureate Education, 2009) and is the second part of the opening question: " . . . while maintaining gender, cultural, and socioeconomic sensitivity."

I am all for fairness. I am all for equality. I am not against equal access to help others learn, grow, and achieve their dreams. But, let’s take a step away from this issue for one moment.

My American husband and I went to an Asian man’s funeral. We were the only non-Asians (so to speak because I am Asian, but born in this country) at the post-service buffet style meal. Every male went to the buffet table first. All women stayed seated until all men had gone through the line. Even the widow of the deceased did not approach the table. My American husband and I wanted to scream, “Woman first, especially the widow, what’s the matter with you people!” Of course we didn’t because “men first” is the Korean custom.

The point is why should we put our cultural beliefs on other cultures? Maybe they do not want equity. Maybe some societies still do not want women to have knowledge. Maybe their government’s success relies on having a percentage of poor, uninformed people. Not that I am a supporter of these types of thinking, but I am a supporter of respecting others, of varying perspectives, and of differences. It is almost ironic to me that we strive to support and respect diversity and cultural differences, but we want all cultures to have what we have. Is this like me saying, “Hey, woman should go first” because that’s the way we do it? Furthermore, is advocating digital equity a form of socialism and how do anti-socialists feel about that?

Soloway says every child should have a cell phone in school. But is that pushing his beliefs even on us as Americans?

Yes, in my perfect world, we would all be like Star Trek, where everyone gets along, everyone is equal, and we spend our time learning, thriving, and exploring, instead of fighting. But even Star Trek had a prime directive that stated that the fully developed, technological advanced Star Trek fleet could not interfere with the internal development or path of a society’s course.


Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009). Diversity and globalism. [DVD]. In emerging and future technology. (Available from MBS Direct Virtual Bookstore, http://www.mbsdirect.net/Index.htm)

Soloway, E. (n.d.). The digital divide: Leveling the playing field. [Podcast]. Laureate Education.
http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=3642809&Survey=1&47=5050260&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Soloway, E. (2009). Get cell phones into schools. http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2009/tc20090114_741903.htm

EDUC 8848 Module 5 Post - Red Queens or Black Jack?

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In this week’s studies we are discussing if DVDs and VOD (Video on Demand) are an example of Red Queens or Increasing Returns. Red Queens, according to Thornburg (2008), are when two technologies are dominating the marketplace in a head-to-head fashion. The competition to stay ahead of the other benefits the consumer as the competitors constantly improve the product to stay in the game. (The term Red Queen was derived from the notion of Alice in Wonderland with the Red Queen in hand, running simply to stay in place.)

Increasing returns, according to Arthur(1996) in his article entitled, Increasing Returns and the World of Business is when two
two innovations also begin to compete but one clearly dominates the other into extinction.

I do not think that DVDs and VOD are Red Queens. When VOD services began, DVD rental places such as Blockbuster had to begin adding to their repertoire of services. For example, not quite yet in the VOD stage, when Netflix delivered movies to the house, Blockbuster added that feature.



Then VOD services began to gain popularity including Netflix, and Blockbuster began to offer VOD services.




I do not think DVDs can compete with VOD, and that eventually VOD will eliminate the DVD market. Currently, however, VOD has not completely modeled the increasing returns yet because, in my opinion, of the human factor of ease of use, need for a new piece of technology, need to learn new technology, and because VOD generally involves commitment to a monthly service. Beta, VHS, and DVD players were all generally the same: Insert a media device into a machine, play, FF, Rewind, Stop, eject. The concept of VOD is different. It will take more time for people to move over to the new way. Also, monthly fees may not appeal to many (like myself) who watch only 3 or 4 movies a year.

Red Queens or Black Jack?
Thornburg (2008) warns us not to extrapolate the future from the past, that changes occur in a non-linear, exponential fashion with the appearance of wild cards at any moment. (A wild card, according to Thornburg, is an innovation that seemingly appears unexpectedly from nowhere and takes over the marketplace.) Arthur (1996) discusses his model of increasing returns and the new management style needed to accommodate this new business model. In Arthur’s discussion, he uses the analogy of gambling at a casino.

Using Thornburg’s reference to cards (Red Queen) and warning about wild cards and using Arthur’s gambling analogy, I propose that perhaps VOD could even lose to Black Jack. Black Jack basically trumps all. So a Black Jack innovation could simply trump all in the video marketplace and could be easy to use, easy to learn, convenient, not requiring learning complicated technology, and appealing to all. Black Jack is like Thornburg's wild card, but in this analogy, it may not be a complete surprise out of nowhere. Also, the term "Black Jack" has the connotative meaning of "I win!"

McLuhan’s Tetrad
In the end, I do believe that currently, VOD is beginning to replace DVDs, yet both have similarities in McLuhan’s Tetrad. Below I have put the DVD into a Social Tetrad and the VOD into a technology tetrad.







References

Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100−109.

Thornburg, D. (2008c). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

8848 Module 4 Second Life as a Disruptive Technology

Disruptive technologies, according to Thornburg in Laureate Education, 2009) is one of the six forces that drive emerging technologies. Thornburg references Clayton Christensen’s term of disruptive innovation as the groundwork of the notion of disruptive technology. In brief, a disruptive technology is an innovation along the evolutionary path of technology that takes the industry by storm in creating a more efficient, lower cost solution with increased benefits and makes it more possible for more consumers to access, afford, or utilize the innovation. At the same time, it obsoletes its predecessors.

Thornburg (in Laureate Education, 2009) uses the transistor as an example of disrupting the success of the vacuum tube. Other examples include the digital cameras replacing film or CDs replacing the phonograph.

For this module, we will discuss Second Life as a disruptive technology.

1. How is Second Life a disruptive technology?
2. What technology does it replace?
3. How long before it is replaced?

I am not 100% sure that Second Life is yet a disruptive technology, but perhaps on the verge of it. As the inventor Philip Rosedale states in his Second Life video talk, "We are more like the Wild West than like Rome." Furthermore, in an interview with Rosedale, (Lamont, 2009) he states that Second Life is in the first stage of at least three stages. Perhaps he is merely being humble, as Second Life could have begun to be a disruptive technology.

Second Life could be replacing games (Nintendo, GameBoy), virtual reality platforms, educational and training classrooms, office meeting and work collaboration areas, a streaming server (allows for streaming audio without a streaming server), and even Skype is mentioned as being replaced with equal or better sound but in a 3D meeting space.

Rosedale (2008) discusses how feedback from current users are consistently helping him to improve upon the concept by identifying the areas of lack and need. His futuristic mindset and drive to push this technology forward in time makes one speculate that he may even obsolete his own creation or come up with the second generation of Second Life. I would say it is too difficult to guestimate when another innovation may make Second Life obsolete. I think the next innovation may pop up as the next stage of processing, speed, power, and storage become faster and more efficient probably by jumping into a whole new realm that we don’t see today. Technological advances can sometimes seem to pop up at a drop of a hat or as Thornburg (in Laureate Education, 2009) said, like a wildcard, not knowing when it is coming, but when it does, "Look out."

4. What are the social benefits of Second Life and what might be the social implications of virtual worlds in my industry?

I hesitate to discuss the social benefits of Second Life. I think the negatives (too much make believe, hiding behind an identity, change of ethical/moral fiber, sitting at a computer too long, etc.) might outweigh the positives on a social level. But that would be a completely separate discussion. I am not saying Second Life is not beneficial for some areas. I often compare technology to a knife. Knives have a lot of great benefits (cooking, cutting, etc.), but if not used properly, they can be very detrimental. From my industry’s perspective, I can see how Second Life could be a helpful tool for training and simulation. Second Life could be a very inexpensive tool for learning, teaching, collaboration, and brainstorming in both the business and educational worlds.


Koh


Resources

Annotated bibliography of Second Life, http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~mpepper/slbib

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009). Science Fiction. [DVD]. In emerging and future technology. (Available from MBS Direct Virtual Bookstore, http://www.mbsdirect.net/Index.htm).

Lamont, I. (2009). Interview with Second Life creator Philip Rosedale. http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/01/30/interview-second-life-creator-philip-rosedale
Rosedale, P. (2008). Philip Rosedale on Second Life. http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html

EDUC 8848 Module 3 Post

May I dare to "go where no man has gone before"? How can I resist a Star Trek reference in light of Science Fiction being one of the six forces that drive emergence of new technologies (Laureate Education, 2009a)? Well maybe someone has challenged the Rhymes of History, but not so far that I have read.

Rhymes of History is one of the forces that drive the emergence of technology. "A new technology is a fresh emergence of the impact felt many years before from another technology." (Thornburg in Laureate Education, 2009a). This goes along with McLuhan's rekindling section of his technology tetrad(Laureate Education, 2009b). For example the Kindle is a handheld library of books, which rekindles the basic book as well as having a place (library) to store many resources.

Here is where I am taking my Star Trek venture. I certainly do not have the years of expertise of McLuhan. My grasp of educational technology must be a fraction of a percent of one percent of Thornburg's knowledge. So I feel rather naive in posing this question. But here goes: Could every piece of technology be tied to rekindling something from the past? Man has had basic needs to survive (which could be eating, making money, hunting, fighting, learning, etc.), be sheltered, provide, communicate, etc. For example, cell phones and all variations of them could be tied to the need to communicate. New, high-tech ovens can be a retrieval of fire. Any transportation vehicle can be a retrieval of man's need to get from one place to another. Cameras could be traced back to drawings on cave walls, to capture or remember. I might be stretching my point too far here, or perhaps I am just totally missing the boat of understanding of McLuhan's rekindling or Thornburg's Rhyme of History. If indeed every technology is tied to something from the past, is Rhyme of History a force?

Lisa Rodriguez made an interesting comment about McLuhan's tetrad, asking if another factor should be added concerning "the downside" or "the dangers" of the technology. I will now expand on her comment and ask if there is any value of having the unintended consequences as discussed by Rogers (2003) reside in the quadrant in place of the rekindle quadrant?

Any clarification or comments are extremely welcome!


References

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009a). Six forces that drive emergence of new technologies. [DVD]. In emerging and future technology. (Available from MBS Direct Virtual Bookstore, http://www.mbsdirect.net/Index.htm)

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009b). McLuhan’s tetrad. [DVD]. In emerging and future technology. (Available from MBS Direct Virtual Bookstore, http://www.mbsdirect.net/Index.htm)

Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations (5th ed.). New York: Free Press.

EDUC 8848 - Module 2 Post

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McLuhan, an educator, philosopher, and scholar is well known for The Medium is the Message. But he also has contributed to the technology with his Laws of Media.

Thornburg's video (Laureate Education, 2009) describes McLuhan's tetrads in two different categories: social implications and technological implications. I have, therefore, created two tetrads for the cell phone. The first one based on social and the second one based on technology.

Social:


Enhances: The ability to communicate anytime, anywhere. This may be a benefit to doctors, business owners, and others who can benefit from being available anytime and not just "when in the office." It may be a benefit in some social situations such as when a woman is going to have a baby. She can contact people immediately. On the other hand, I am uncertain if it is truly a benefit to everyone.

Obsoletes: The words, "I couldn't reach you." This is almost the opposite of the social enhancement.

Rekindles: The desire to communicate. Long ago, the telegraph and the delivery of mail was generated from the desire to communicate.

Reverses: 24/7 contact. Eventually, people may be in constant 24/7 contact with anyone, anywhere. It may be normal to be having several conversations simultaneously.


Technology:


Enhances: Original "mobile" car phone. At one time, you could only chat while in your automobile.

Obsoletes: Landlines. Many people do not have a "home" phone number or a landline in their house.

Rekindles: Portable home phones. At one time, the state-of-the art technology was a portable phone, one you could carry around in your house (but it was wirelessly dependent on a wired base phone).

Reverses: The next generation of Smart Phones. Cell phones have merged with other handheld technologies to be much more than just a method of talking to a person. One cannot also speculate if something like the Star Trek "communicator" could be coming up next - or is that the reversal of the walkie talkie?





Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009). McLuhan’s tetrad. [DVD]. In emerging and future technology. (Available from MBS Direct Virtual Bookstore, http://www.mbsdirect.net/Index.htm)found on our

EDUC 8848 Module 1 Post

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From Parties to Facebook





Gathering with your friends used to take place at parties, and meetings with people in your industry used to occur at conferences. They still do convene in these face-to-face environments, but now online social networking has added a new dimension to meeting places. Thornburg (2009) discusses transformations in society that are occurring due to technology, and this blog post is an extension of his paper.

The concept of online social networking begun in the late 90's but really began to emerge in the mainstream in 2006. Perhaps one might speculate that the early majority (Rogers, 2003) may have begun using online social networking in 2007-2008.




The upside to this technology is the increased amount of business networking that can take place through such general sites as Linked In or industry specific sites such as The Hospitality Club. Such sites as Facebook bring friends together, and today students are beginning to use their Facebook page as their primary means of communication even above email.


The advantages are quite obvious, but the disadvantages still lurk both children and adults. The news, 60 minutes, and various similar shows have aired specials on predators, pedophiles, and identity thieves who use social networking pages as their playground. (Sample article.)

In the same vein, others are saying that the danger of online predators is not as prevalent as we had once thought. (Article) On a personal note, that article, to me, is unfounded because it says that the number of arrests has only slightly increased. I do not believe number of arrests is necessarily an indicator of number of crimes. Many people do not report the crime due to embarrassment and humiliation. Yet in the same article it discusses how there is a "significant number of sting operation arrests" (Magid, 2008).

The question for this week is: What would make the technology even better, avoiding the pitfalls? Honestly, I do not have an answer and welcome anyone's perspective on that question.

References:

Magid, L. (2009). Online predator study dispels hysteria. Retrieved from http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/03/31/scitech/pcanswer/main4908379.shtml?tag=contentMain;contentBody

Rogers, E. (2003). Diffusion of innovations. New York: Free Press.

Thornburg, D. (2009). Current trends in educational technology. Retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/Courses/14936/crs-wueduc8812-3526271/when_is_a_technology_emergent.pdf